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$1,300,000 per Bitcoin? – Or Have we already reached this cycle’s HIGH?

Institutional Crypto Research Written by Experts

Author

Markus Thielen
May 09, 2024

👇1-14) In our May 2022 presentation, we predicted Bitcoin would remain in a bear market for another six months (until October 2022) if the cycle analysis remained valid. On October 28, 2022, we published a report (here) projecting that this would be the ‘ideal buying opportunity’ and that Bitcoin would rally to $63,160 into the 2024 Bitcoin halving (actual price: $63,491).

👇2-14) Our secret sauce? An iteration of the stock-to-flow model combined with some cycle models that we had constructed. But is this stock-to-flow model still valid? What other factors or models should we consider?

👇3-14) True; in early 2023, we used another quant model to predict Bitcoin would rally to $45,000 by Christmas (here) (actual price: $43,613), and in early 2024, we expected a rally to $70,000 (here).

👇4-14) At 10x Research, we use many quant models to project upside and downside possibilities—similar to how Price-to-Earnings ratios indicate how high or low a stock price rises or falls. However, human judgment must always exist, as data alone cannot capture the changing human dynamics expressed through narratives.

How realistic is the stock-to-flow model’s Bitcoin price projection of $1,320,807 for this 2024 to 2028 cycle?

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