90%+ Probability An Ethereum ETF Approval Today, Sell The News?

Institutional Crypto Research Written by Experts

Author

Markus Thielen
May 22, 2024

👇1-12) The SEC should approve US-listed ETH ETFs today. Hours before the Bitcoin ETF approval, SEC Gensler tweeted that crypto investors should consider all potential risks before making any investment. Today, a tweet could come around 9 a.m. ET. and would provide more clarity on whether approval would be imminent.

👇2-12) As the SEC had previously provided warning signals ahead of ETF listings tied to crypto futures, it was also evident in January 2024 that Bitcoin ETFs would be approved.

👇3-12) Today, the market will be waiting for similar ‘warnings.’ However, approval seems only a formality, with the Grayscale Ethereum Trust having narrowed the discount to just -8% from -30% a week ago. An 8% discount implies at least a 90% probability that an ETF would be approved. With $11bn of AUM, this Trust is meaningful in size and will likely see some outflows from investors who are happy to lock in their gains finally. The critical question remains when those ETFs would start trading if approved.

Grayscale’s $11bn Ethereum Trust is nearly trading at par with it’s NAV

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