A killer statistic for Bitcoin -> targets 45,000

Helping EVERYONE to make better crypto investment decisions.

🚩 In 10 bullet points:

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πŸ‘‡ 1) We, nor our readers, are surprised that Bitcoin prices rallied by +38% in January – and there is very likely more returns to come, here is why:

πŸ‘‡ 2) In our 2023 outlook report, we pointed out how the macro picture had turned outright bullish for risk assets, including crypto.

πŸ‘‡ 3) Our analysis from January 5 indicated that Ethereum prices could rally by +27% into the March Shanghai upgrade. That report was based on some numbers we ran and indeed Ethereum quickly achieved the 1,600 price target.

Exhibit 1: When January is up, Bitcoin returns for the rest of the year

πŸ‘‡ 4) By January 20, we sent out our Bitcoin Chinese New Year analysis that predicted a +9% rally within just ten days. A Twitter tweet got 240,000 views pointing this out and Bitcoin prices indeed rallied by +10% very quickly.

πŸ‘‡ 5) Our analysis around institutional flows showed that indeed US institutions might have been behind the January rally in Bitcoin prices, which tends to be bullish for prices going forward.

πŸ‘‡ 6) Here is our new study:

πŸ‘‡ 7) When Bitcoin prices are up in January, as has happened six times, then the return for the remaining year (Feb – Dec) has averaged +245% with five out of those six years (83%) showing positive returns.

πŸ‘‡ 8) The only year that Bitcoin prices declined after the January effect signal got triggered, was in 2014 when prices just made a bull market peak. This is obviously far from today’s set up after Bitcoin prices declined by -67% from their 2021 peak.

πŸ‘‡ 9) The driver of the 2023 bull market could easily be the expected March 2024 Bitcoin halving cycle, which has tended to be very bullish for crypto prices.

πŸ‘‡ 10) Hence, there is a high statistical probability that Bitcoin prices could double from here until year end. This could bring Bitcoin prices to 45,000 by Christmas 2023.