Bitcoin Bear Market? Reassessing the evidence.

👇1-15) Unlike the prolonged 2021/2022 bear market, we now see a pattern of shorter, mini-bear cycles punctuated by sharp rallies. Our research’s value lies in clearly signaling when to adopt a bullish, bearish, or cautious outlook, guided by our disciplined investment framework.

👇2-15) This process integrates data-driven insights across on-chain metrics, market structure, macro trends, technical indicators, and more. We rely on trend signals as an independent tool to separate market reality from wishful thinking and alert us to potential trend shifts—an approach we believe adds significant value.

Bitcoin vs. STH Realized Price - Bull / Bear Market Indicator

👇3-15) This is why we emphasized the importance of the $95,000 support level—once it broke, it triggered liquidations below $92,800 (average short-term holder entry price). This not only confirmed the Diamond Top formation (see our February 4 report, “Ethereum: Falling into the Abyss of Irrelevance”) but also activated the ascending broadening wedge breakdown (see our February 25 report, “Bitcoin: Textbook Correction?”), setting off a series of key bear market signals. Trying to catch short-term bottoms remains tempting, as there are opportunities to capitalize on quick gains.

👇4-15) Our call for caution heading into March/April 2024 was just as contrarian as our extremely bullish stance in late September 2024. While maintaining a bullish outlook leading up to Trump’s inauguration, we swiftly reversed that view as conditions changed.

👇5-15) In trading, recognizing turning points is critical, and the sharp losses in the $TRUMP meme coin were a clear sentiment breaker that reinforced our shift in positioning. However, Bitcoin’s recent decline stems from a different set of dynamics, raising the critical question: is the Bitcoin in a bear market?

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