Bitcoin New All Time Highs Coming? But When To Sell Ethereum?

👇1-12) After initially defining 68,300 in March and April as a level to close out long positions if Bitcoin trades below, we expected a decline to 52,000/55,000, which almost materialized (the actual low was 56,500). Trading activity was nearly non-existent, Bitcoin ETF inflows had stopped, and the market struggled with upside inflation risk. A cautious or even a bearish view was warranted.

👇2-12) However, when Bitcoin broke below 60,000 in early May, we defined a new line in the sand on May 3 at 62,000, as previous triangle breakdowns were unsuccessful. However, “our three reversal indicators are still bearish but could attempt to buy this dip if we fall deep enough or if we rally,” as we wrote in that May 3 note. Above 62,000, it was the level to be bullish as previous triangle breakdowns failed and caused ‘quick’ and forceful rallies.

👇3-12) On May 6, we followed up. We explained that “despite the current (neutral) market conditions, Bitcoin continues to be supported by the US election cycle and ongoing deficit spending … 62,000 new line in the sand … set 60,800 as a stop level for any new (tactical) long positions”. Our ideal scenario, where Bitcoin drops (tactically) in the mid-to-low 50s and then starts to rally due to the US Presidential election chatter, was also pulled forward (we defined the Republican National Convention as a potential political trigger).

Bitcoin Price vs. Bitcoin Futures Open Interest (LHS, $bn)

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