Bitcoin's +150% Surge: Key Events That Defined 2024

Institutional Crypto Research Written by Experts

Author

Markus Thielen
December 16, 2024

The fifth Bitcoin bull market began on June 22, 2023, triggered by our proprietary one-year high cycle indicator. Just days later (BTC at $30,000), on July 6, 2023, we published a report forecasting a year-end 2024 Bitcoin price of $125,000 based on our cycle analysis. With Bitcoin closing in on this target, we look back at the most impactful crypto events in 2024 and will soon unveil our prediction for 2025.

Bitcoin has surged +148% year-to-date and has delivered positive returns in nine of the past twelve months. Following a remarkable +155% gain in 2023, Bitcoin is on track to achieve consecutive +150% return years. A historical pattern has persisted since 2011, with Bitcoin experiencing three consecutive up years followed by one down year. The only exceptions in its 15-year history are three down years: a -58% drop in 2014, a -74% decline in 2018, and a -64% decrease in 2022. If this trend holds, 2025 could mark another positive year before a potential decline in 2026.

Bitcoin ETFs were a key driver of the heightened excitement in Q1 2025, sparking significant market activity and widespread investor interest by raising $100 billion. The introduction and approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs by leading financial institutions provided institutional investors with a more accessible and direct way to gain exposure to Bitcoin. Unlike futures-based ETFs, spot ETFs mirror Bitcoin’s actual price, offering a simpler and more appealing option for large-scale investors.

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