Bitcoin’s Next Big Buy Zone Revealed!

Bitcoin, MicroStrategy, on-chain data, liquidations, technicals, and more...

Author

Markus Thielen
February 25, 2025

👇1-11) Yesterday, Bitcoin dropped sharply, breaking below the critical $95,000 support level. We had previously warned about this key threshold in our December 20, 2024 report (Bitcoin’s 2025 Shift: Why It’s All About Macro and Inflation Again). In that report, we highlighted a potential topping formation driven by global liquidity trends and the macro headwinds Bitcoin was facing—including a hawkish Federal Reserve and rising inflation expectations. Additionally, we outlined key dates in 2025 when Bitcoin could potentially resume its rally based on historical market cycles and liquidity shifts.

Bitcoin significant liquidation events (LHS, $ million) during the last year

👇2-11) In that report, we cautioned that MicroStrategy’s inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 could become a "sell the news" event. Despite billions of dollars in Bitcoin purchases, BTC prices failed to increase. Our October 7, 2024 report suggested that MicroStrategy shares could break above $177. Still, by December 19, 2024, in our report (Bitcoin, MicroStrategy – NOT Every Dip Presents a Buying Opportunity), we warned that new shareholders were significantly overpaying and explicitly recommended avoiding MicroStrategy.

👇3-11) At the time, MicroStrategy shares were trading at $350 (+98% from our October 19 report), compared to $250 today, marking a 29% decline. This validates our concerns about excessive valuation from our December 19 report. But when and at what level would we buy back Bitcoin? Let’s go through some numbers:

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