Bitcoin Stuck in This Range? Or a Breakout Looms?

Institutional Crypto Research Written by Experts

Author

Markus Thielen
June 02, 2024

👇1-13) Traders are complaining that Bitcoin is going nowhere despite prices only 7% away from new all-time highs. Many Bitcoins are being moved off exchanges while our stablecoin impulse delivers a warning sign.

👇2-13) Crypto market volumes have declined to $50bn while the funding rates are only marginally positive. Undoubtedly, interest is low. Fed policy and inflation data are seen as the two key variables that could push Bitcoin to new all-time highs. On June 5, the Bank of Canada could start the global rate-cutting cycle, offering a blueprint for the Fed, while the June 12 US inflation print would need to show a lower print (3.3%) for Bitcoin to rally.

Bitcoin funding rate (LHS, white) vs. Crypto Volumes (RHS, purple, $bn)

👇3-13) A sharp decline in Bitcoin exchange balances signals that whales are moving coins off exchanges in anticipation of higher prices. During the last month, 88,000 Bitcoins have been moved off exchanges, with 2.5 million coins remaining, the lowest level since March 2018. Exchange outflows started on May 15, coinciding with the 45 days after the quarter-end 13F filing requirement for US registered investors managing more than $100m.

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