Bitcoin to $115,000 by Christmas?

The relentless liquidity inflows remain a major driver of the crypto market’s momentum.

Author

Markus Thielen
November 21, 2024

👇1-12) Yesterday, we observed that MicroStrategy's implied volatility had risen to 200%, indicating an expected daily move of 12.6%. However, with few outstanding call options at the higher strike levels the stock had reached, the upside gamma from the options market vanished. As a result, MicroStrategy’s stock dropped by 16% overnight, as traders were unwilling to buy calls at such elevated implied volatility levels. Following the 16% decline, implied volatility has surged to 270%, implying a daily move of 16%. Despite the sharp drop in MicroStrategy shares, Bitcoin has remained resilient, holding steady at $98,000.

Crypto Market Cap (LHS, $ trillion) vs. Crypto Volumes (RHS, $ billion)

👇2-12) As noted in our November 6 update, "Quick Update: We Expect a New SEC Chair by April/May 2025," we anticipated that current SEC Chair Gary Gensler would step down in December or January. According to a statement on the SEC website, Gensler will officially step down on January 20, 2025, coinciding with the inauguration of the new U.S. President. While this timeline aligns with our expectations, it’s possible that a new SEC Chair could be confirmed slightly earlier.

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