Every Profitable Bitcoin Trader Is Watching These TWO data points

Institutional Crypto Research Written by Experts

Author

Markus Thielen
April 23, 2024

👇1-10) A moment of truth is near. Bitcoin has rallied from 60,000 to 67,500 in four days, almost reaching our line in the sand. However, the rally occurred within four one-hour time windows and appeared driven by several blocks of larger orders instead of gradual buying during those four days.

👇2-10) The real test is not our 68,300 ‘line-in-the-sand’ level, which symbolizes the previous high. After retesting, this previous bull market’s all-time high level, while previously rejected, caused a parabolic move in Bitcoin in the last cycles.

👇3-10) As crypto futures traders have turned cautious, the real test is for the spot market to drive this rally higher. Although the funding rate was elevated during the last couple of weeks, signaling that futures traders were willing to deploy excessive leverage, it has turned negative for the first time since mid-October 2023. But there is a lot more to say about this, as we explain below.

Bitcoin’s Funding Rate Has Turned Negative

Market Updates

Become a paying subscriber of Market Updates to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

Most comprehensive, unbiased digital asset research for traders and institutions:

  • • Receive 2-4 concise, informative Market Updates reports per week.
  • • We cover everything that impacts the price of Bitcoin and other major cryptos, from on-chain data to macro and market structure (funding rates, money flows, etc.). Our insights are trusted by some of the largest hedge funds and traders in the industry.
  • • You'll gain full access to our in-depth 'Market Update' analysis, informed by our experience at leading investment banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan, as well as managing hedge fund capital at Millennium.
  • • We rigorously backtest our insights and are unafraid to call bullish or bearish market conditions. Our research is unique and grounded in solid financial analysis, offering perspectives you won't find anywhere else.
  • • --------------
  • • Our clients include hedge funds, traders, liquidity providers, exchanges, family offices, proprietary traders, institutions, high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), CEOs of major listed Bitcoin mining companies, executives from crypto service providers, TradeFi portfolio managers, etc.