Fed hawkishness is ‘more important than Trump’ for Bitcoin

Institutional Crypto Research Written by Experts

Author

Markus Thielen
March 04, 2025

👇1-10) While many touted Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve tweet as a game changer, we took a more measured approach, analyzing that an official congressional directive was likely still months away. Instead of chasing the hype, we saw it as an opportunity to lock in profits following the recent rebound.

👇2-10) We have nailed this Bitcoin zig-zag correction with precision. First, we warned that breaking below $95,000 would open the door to further downside (here), with a move below $92,800—the average entry price for short-term holders—triggering liquidations. We then anticipated a drop below $80,000 as an ideal risk/reward re-entry point (here), reinforcing this view when Bitcoin became oversold.

👇3-10) When Bitcoin pumped to $94,000, we cautioned in yesterday’s report that long positions should be closed (here), emphasizing that Bitcoin struggled to break the critical $95,000/$96,000 zone—a key level needed to invalidate the bearish broadening wedge structure. Additionally, we outlined why a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is still months away (here) and warned that Bitcoin “could decline further if no concrete steps are announced.” We also highlighted one key analog chart formation a week ago, which has been a perfect roadmap for Bitcoin. The next few days will determine whether Bitcoin continues to follow this pattern.

Bitcoin: Ascending Wedge Pattern Break - Retest of Resistance Line

Our Interview from January 13 was spot on (watch it here)

Market Updates

Become a paying subscriber of Market Updates to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

Most comprehensive, unbiased digital asset research for traders and institutions:

  • • Receive 2-4 concise, informative Market Updates reports per week.
  • • We cover everything that impacts the price of Bitcoin and other major cryptos, from on-chain data to macro and market structure (funding rates, money flows, etc.). Our insights are trusted by some of the largest hedge funds and traders in the industry.
  • • You'll gain full access to our in-depth 'Market Update' analysis, informed by our experience at leading investment banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan, as well as managing hedge fund capital at Millennium.
  • • We rigorously backtest our insights and are unafraid to call bullish or bearish market conditions. Our research is unique and grounded in solid financial analysis, offering perspectives you won't find anywhere else.
  • • --------------
  • • Our clients include hedge funds, traders, liquidity providers, exchanges, family offices, proprietary traders, institutions, high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), CEOs of major listed Bitcoin mining companies, executives from crypto service providers, TradeFi portfolio managers, etc.