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Forget the Trump Polls: Here's What Bitcoin Traders Should Really Watch

Smart investors are focusing on these traders to win on election day.

Author

Markus Thielen
October 17, 2024

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Forget the Trump Polls: Here's What Bitcoin Traders Should really Watch

👇1-14) Markets are bracing for a potential Trump victory, but institutional investors will likely hold off on significant buying until the election outcome is officially confirmed. Betting markets and polls, which have historically underestimated Trump's odds, suggest that a Republican win is almost certain. With both the White House and Senate under GOP control, Trump's policy agenda could be rapidly implemented, driving a surge in risk assets until the reality of higher interest rates begins to weigh on the markets – if he is elected.

👇2-14) Polls are often biased and susceptible to manipulation. While some investors may look to platforms like Polymarket, where a few large players can skew odds, others may trust pollsters that favor the opposite candidate. However, large-scale traders often clearly indicate where the market believes the election will swing. If these market signals are accurate, trades aligned with this sentiment could perform even stronger. Let’s break down which data investors should focus on and what indicators matter for predicting the election outcome.

Election Spread Trade (LHS, white) is leading Bitcoin (RHS, purple)

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