Has $TRUMP killed the Crypto Pump?

👇1-14) Trading volumes have fallen sharply to levels last seen before the Trump election, and it may take up to six months to gain clarity on the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve announcement. Despite this uncertainty, Bitcoin has remained relatively strong as sophisticated traders have shifted out of altcoins and into BTC, maintaining its dominance above 60%. The recent altcoin (and meme coin) rally quickly faded, confirming the broader market’s rotation into Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Funding Rate (LHS) vs. Binance Spot Crypto Volumes (RHS, $ billions)

👇2-14) Institutional players increasingly treat Bitcoin as a macro asset, using it to express market views when traditional financial markets are closed on holidays and weekends. Bitcoin remains one of the most macro-sensitive assets, reacting sharply to shifts in economic expectations.

👇3-14) Last Friday’s decline was driven entirely by a rise in inflation expectations, highlighting this sensitivity. With a hawkish Fed, persistent inflation expectations could create headwinds for Bitcoin’s price in the near term. Understanding macro trends and Trump's next moves is critical for navigating the market.

US 1-year inflation expectations - consumers are worried.

👇4-14) Google Search Trends, a key indicator of retail interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum, peaked last cycle in May 2021, shortly after Coinbase went public. For Solana and meme coins, search interest hit their high on January 19, 2024—coinciding with major crypto exchanges listing the $TRUMP meme coin, just a day before Trump's inauguration. Since then, meme coin search trends have collapsed, dropping from a peak score of 100 to just 19, now trailing behind Solana (37) and Bitcoin (24) in overall interest.

Google Search Trends - last 5 years

👇5-14) Some analysts interpret the lack of sustained interest over a five-year horizon as a sign that retail investors have yet to fully enter this cycle's crypto market—suggesting that we may still be in the early stages of broader retail adoption. Fintech and crypto often promote themselves as tools for democratizing financial wealth, yet institutions increasingly dominate the game—both in crypto and traditional markets.

👇6-14) In Bitcoin, just 7% of the total supply is held by wallets with less than 1 BTC, meaning that 93% of all BTC belongs to wallets holding over $96,000 in value. Moreover, the sub-1 BTC wallet category has remained stagnant since early 2023, signaling that Bitcoin’s market dynamics are primarily driven by larger players rather than everyday retail traders.

👇7-14) Until early 2019, wallets holding 10–100 BTC were the largest cohort, likely influenced by mining rewards and block size dynamics. However, since then, the 1,000–10,000 BTC category has taken the lead as dominant players—including exchanges—have expanded their holdings. More recently, the 100–1,000 BTC cohort has become the largest, suggesting that family offices, wealth funds, and asset managers are increasingly accumulating Bitcoin.

👇8-14) What’s clear is that Bitcoin is no longer a retail-driven market—if it ever was. With BTC trading at six-figure levels, retail investors are unlikely to step in and buy whole coins. Instead, (retail) attention has shifted toward speculative alternatives, mainly meme coins, as the previous narrative of DeFi replacing TradFi has faded since the last bull market.

👇9-14) Billions have been won and lost with the $TRUMP token, which skyrocketed to a $14.5 billion market cap just two days after launch. This surge came shortly after major crypto exchanges fast-tracked their listing, providing exit liquidity for early buyers. Retail investors tend to tolerate risk despite frequently losing money—look at weekly lottery sales. However, they withdraw when they sense the game is rigged.

Daily Pump dot fun transactions (LHS) vs. 30-day change (RHS)

👇10-14) New ‘pump dot fun’ token launches (transactions) have dropped 50% from their peak, and overall trading activity has slowed significantly as most new listings result in losses. The issue isn’t just price declines—it’s the realization that insiders could accumulate large amounts early, leverage significant crypto exchanges for liquidity, and then sell to retail investors at over $60 per token, only to trade below $16. This growing awareness may be discouraging further speculative frenzy.

👇11-14) Sentiment remains weak, and macro headwinds continue to weigh on the market. While this is far from the end of Bitcoin or crypto—prices will undoubtedly rally again. But meanwhile, retail investors are sitting on heavy losses, mainly from tokens like $TRUMP (-78% from the high), and they may be hesitant to re-enter speculative trades.

👇12-14) Until a new major narrative emerges, the market will likely remain in consolidation, with continued downside pressure in the near term. However, if Bitcoin retraces most of its gains from the Trump election rally, it could create a strong buying opportunity. Google Search Trends data reinforces this possibility, as many meme coins have already erased their post-election gains, and the sharp decline in trading volumes could trigger further profit-taking.

👇13-14) The launch of $TRUMP appears to have directly coincided with the peaks of Pump(dot)fun and Solana, marking a turning point in speculative momentum. This time, the wealth transfer from late buyers to early investors may have been too extreme and publicized, potentially dampening enthusiasm for new speculative meme coin pumps. As with every cycle, altcoins—and now meme coins—will struggle to reclaim their previous highs

👇14-14) However, with strong Bitcoin buyers still in the market, this cycle may have more room to run—especially once the market navigates the current macro headwinds like inflation and tariffs. A prime buying opportunity for Bitcoin could emerge within the next few weeks.

Bitcoin - below the 30-day moving average