• 10x Market Updates
  • Posts
  • Have You Seen This? The Most Crucial Bitcoin Development of the Year

Have You Seen This? The Most Crucial Bitcoin Development of the Year

How ISM Data, U.S. Dollar Weakness, and Global Liquidity Are Paving the Way for a Bitcoin Breakout.

Author

Markus Thielen
September 29, 2024

👇1-14) While most attention has been on U.S. employment data, the ISM Manufacturing Index triggered a 10% market correction during the first week of each of the last three months. Employment data, however, played a crucial role in shaping market sentiment. Weak employment figures fueled recession fears, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts, while more robust employment data reassured investors that the economy was more resilient than the ISM Manufacturing Index suggested.

Bitcoin sold off -10% during the first five days in the last three months.

👇2-14) The ISM likely accurately reflected the economy. However, the market has been interpreting employment data through the lens of lower inflation, anticipating that this would give the Fed more room for aggressive action. In July, we highlighted that the ISM could signal the end of the Bitcoin cycle, and this month’s ISM data, released on October 1 at 10 a.m. ET, will be critical for gauging the outlook for the U.S. economy.

👇3-14) As a result, there’s likely to be some anxiety leading up to tomorrow’s data release. As usual, we’ve got a bold theory about what’s coming next.

Market Updates

Become a paying subscriber of Market Updates to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

Most comprehensive, unbiased digital asset research for traders and institutions:

  • • Receive 2-4 concise, informative Market Updates reports per week.
  • • We cover everything that impacts the price of Bitcoin and other major cryptos, from on-chain data to macro and market structure (funding rates, money flows, etc.). Our insights are trusted by some of the largest hedge funds and traders in the industry.
  • • You'll gain full access to our in-depth 'Market Update' analysis, informed by our experience at leading investment banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan, as well as managing hedge fund capital at Millennium.
  • • We rigorously backtest our insights and are unafraid to call bullish or bearish market conditions. Our research is unique and grounded in solid financial analysis, offering perspectives you won't find anywhere else.
  • • --------------
  • • Our clients include hedge funds, traders, liquidity providers, exchanges, family offices, proprietary traders, institutions, high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), CEOs of major listed Bitcoin mining companies, executives from crypto service providers, TradeFi portfolio managers, etc.