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Next Week's Data Point Could Trump Bitcoin Halving's Impact - Here's Why

Institutional Crypto Research Written by Experts

Author

Markus Thielen
April 02, 2024

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Next Week's Data Point Could Trump Bitcoin Halving's Impact - Here's Why

👇1-12) Besides ‘being early,’ crypto returns are often defined by two significant factors – the cycle AND the macro environment. Understanding both tends to help make the right decisions in capturing waves and preventing large PnL drawdowns.

👇2-12) On October 28, 2022, we called for a bottom in Bitcoin and expected that 16 months later, Bitcoin would be trading at 63,000 in March 2024. In December 2022, most economists expected higher inflation for the foreseeable future and a US recession in 2023. We had a different view, and our models predicted a sharp decline in inflation (CPI) that would cause a massive rally in Bitcoin (and tech stocks).

👇3-12) Although macro (changes in growth, inflation, and central bank policies) didn’t impact Bitcoin (crypto) prices for the last twelve months, those macro factors might now be the most critical again. Next week’s macro data point might be even more important than the halving date.

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