Part 1: The 4 Bitcoin Catalysts Everyone Is Watching

Institutional Crypto Research Written by Experts

Author

Markus Thielen
March 30, 2025

This report is longer than our usual publications, but it tackles many of the key questions surrounding our current outlook. We recommend reading Part 1 today and Part 2 tomorrow for the full picture.

👇1-26) Although we correctly anticipated the decline in Bitcoin, we became more constructive two weeks ago. This shift was driven by Fed Chair Powell’s signal that the Fed remains willing to look through inflationary pressures and still pursue rate cuts—effectively keeping the Fed put alive.

👇2-26) At the same time, the Trump administration hinted at a downside threshold in U.S. equities that would prompt intervention to stabilize markets. Risk assets were also deeply oversold, pointing to a potential rebound.

👇3-26) By mid-March, we expected that most Bitcoin arbitrage positions had been fully unwound, as funding rates remained unattractive for an extended period. The BTC ETF-related selling—one of the main catalysts behind the recent decline—appeared to have largely run its course. As is often the case, markets began recovering ahead of the anticipated April 2 tariff announcement, suggesting that the event had already been factored into prices.

Bitcoin broke the triangle pattern

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