The Week Ahead Bitcoin / Crypto: Key Events for Traders

The Week Ahead

Monday, October 7: Polymarket U.S. Presidential Election odds: Trump at 50.6% (+0.3%) versus Harris at 48.4% (-0.4%). With Elon Musk campaigning alongside Trump on Sunday, the former president appears to be the frontrunner for the November 5 election. Last week’s crypto market downturn was partly driven by $1.6 billion in token unlocks, compared to $490 million the previous week. However, as this week’s unlocks drop back to $530 million, we could see a potential rally driven by reduced unlock overhang. FTX Chapter 11 hearing, paving the way for payouts to over 98% of FTX customers. US consumer credit data.

Tuesday, October 8: HBO Bitcoin documentary (9 pm EST). Len Sassaman (who died July 2011 at age 31) leads betting as the likely creator of Bitcoin.

Wednesday, October 9: OP token unlock ($14m). The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September FOMC meeting will be released.

Thursday, October 10: US CPI forecast 2.3% vs. 2.5% previous; the PCE already fell to 2.2% last month.

Friday, October 11: The PPI data release shows a 1.7% drop from the previous month’s 2.2%. PPI could become a leading data point for CPI.

Last Week

The ISM Manufacturing data shows signs of weakness. At the same time, a stronger-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing report signals robust economic growth in the U.S. This trend is consistent with recent initial jobless claims, which had already pointed to a resilient labor market. Robust employment data has helped to ease concerns about potential slowdowns in the broader economy or job market.

However, the divergence between these two ISM indicators could work in Trump's favor. The manufacturing-focused Rust Belt electorate may feel increasingly overlooked by the more service-oriented Non-Manufacturing report, potentially deepening economic disparities in these critical regions.

In other news, the UAE has exempted cryptocurrency transfers and conversions from value-added tax. Coinbase plans to delist all unauthorized stablecoins in the European Union (EU) in December, while Kraken will remove Monero from its EU offerings by October 31. Banks are expected to begin live trials of crypto transactions on the SWIFT network in 2025. The SEC has escalated the final judgment in the Ripple Labs case to the 2nd Circuit.

Despite a protocol commitment to a one-year' full lock, ' Eigen Layer faces backlash after its venture capital funds cashed out rewards.’ The platform investigates unauthorized sales after 1 million tokens were sold via Metamask, causing a community outcry. In leadership news, Chainalysis CEO and co-founder Michael Gronager has resigned.

Binance's market share has dropped to its lowest point in four years. Meanwhile, Kraken is expanding globally with the launch of a new derivatives platform in Bermuda, which is backed by regulatory approval. Visa has also entered the space, launching a new tokenized asset platform.