What This Week's Inflation Data Means for Your Bitcoins

Institutional Crypto Research Written by Experts

Author

Markus Thielen
May 14, 2024

👇1-10) Traders expect a +/-6% move for Bitcoin by the end of this week. This is, of course, on the back of tonight’s PPI and, more importantly, tomorrow’s CPI US inflation data print. However, with implied volatility priced at 52.8% vs. 50.8% for other maturities, we can hardly say that a big move in BTC on the back of these inflation prints is priced in. Implied volatility is not expensive, as realized volatility traded slightly below 50%.

👇2-10) Technically, Bitcoin is still pressing onto the 60,800 to 61,400 support level. If this is broken, we would expect lower prices. The average entry price for Bitcoin ETF holdings is around 57,000, so any break below 60,000 will likely cause an adrenaline spike for those investors. It is no coincidence that BTC inflows slowed once Bitcoin failed to rally.

👇3-10) It is also no coincidence that stablecoin inflows slowed once the Bitcoin halving was out of the way, as many traders expect a consolidation period. The more exciting aspect is that Bitcoin sold off after each of the last two CPI/PPI data points were released. Hence, today’s note focuses on our Bitcoin expectations after those inflation prints.

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