Bitcoin $80,000 - Textbook Bitcoin correction we warned about is unfolding exactly as expected.

👇1-11) In our February 10, 2025 report, “Has $TRUMP Killed the Crypto Pump?” we analyzed how the crypto market dynamics shifted following the launch of the Trump Coin and its potential implications. We highlighted, "The market will likely remain in consolidation, with continued downside pressure in the near term.” “The launch of $TRUMP appears to have directly coincided with the peaks of Pump(dot)fun and Solana, marking a turning point in speculative momentum.” “A prime buying opportunity for Bitcoin could emerge within the next few weeks.”

Pump Dot Fun Transactions (LHS) vs. 30-day transaction change (RHS)

👇2-11) Despite Bitcoin correcting nearly -20% since our Trend Model turned bearish near $96,000, this prime buying opportunity has yet to materialize. As anticipated, the Solana ecosystem collapsed, dragging down activity and new launches on Pump dot fun. In our report, we noted: “The issue isn’t just price declines—it’s the realization that insiders could accumulate large amounts early, leverage major crypto exchanges for liquidity, and then sell to retail investors at over $60 per token, only for it to trade below $16. This growing awareness may be discouraging further speculative frenzy.”

Our Research report from February 4, when the Trend Model turned bearish

👇3-11) This shift in sentiment has significantly dampened retail speculation, reinforcing our cautious outlook. Daily meme coin launches peaked shortly after the $TRUMP coin debut but have declined sharply. $TRUMP is now down -85% from its highs, trading at just $11.5, leaving retail investors again sitting on heavy losses after buying into the hype.

👇4-11) As previously noted, hedge funds used this liquidity post-Trump election and around the inauguration to execute arbitrage trades, profiting from funding and basis spreads between Bitcoin futures and ETFs. As sentiment deteriorated, funding rates collapsed, leading to the likely unwinding of these trades.

👇5-11) In mid-May, we will gain further clarity when mandatory 13F filings confirm positioning changes. However, our analysis shows over 50% of Bitcoin ETF inflows may have originated from hedge funds. This represents significant sell pressure as these funds unwind positions. While some of this flow may be offset through futures unwinding, it still sends a negative signal to the broader market. Top hedge funds hold approximately $10 billion in Bitcoin ETFs and appear to be actively reducing their exposure.

👇6-11) Although we previously highlighted MicroStrategy’s breakout above $177 and later recommended selling (or avoiding) at $350, we reiterated our bearish stance earlier this week when the stock traded at $283—it has since dropped to $228 in after-hours trading. Despite aggressive Bitcoin purchases since August 2020, MicroStrategy is only up 20% on its total Bitcoin holdings, with an average acquisition price of $66,300 per BTC. Based on our valuation models, the fair value of MSTR shares falls between $136 and $154.

👇7-11) This decline aligns with our negative outlook for Bitcoin once it fell below the critical $95,000 support level. The breakdown triggered liquidations after breaching the average short-term holder entry price of $92,800. In our report, “MicroStrategy Cracks as Bitcoin Tests $90K—Is a Deeper Drop Coming?”, we warned: “Bitcoin has broken the critical $95,000 level, a move that could have significant implications in the coming weeks. With several key factors at play, this is not the time for complacency—market dynamics are shifting, and traders should remain vigilant.” These market developments reinforce our view that downside risks remain elevated.

👇8-11) When trading crypto, it's crucial to look beyond the hype and incorporate fundamentals, revenues, transactions, on-chain analysis, macro trends, and market structure into decision-making. Technical analysis helps cut through market noise and navigate price swings and is a critical risk management tool. When the trend shifts, traders may still see a bullish narrative, but a data-driven trend model turning short provides an objective signal to reassess positions. This has been evident in recent Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana signals, where technicals aligned with broader market shifts.

Our Trend and Breakout/down model turned bearish BTC, ETH, and SOL.

👇9-11) A holistic approach—integrating multiple market drivers—sets professional investors apart from retail traders, improving trade execution and risk management. This is why our Trading Signals and Trading Dashboard are essential tools, providing valuable insights that enhance our overall market analysis.

👇10-11) In our February 4 report, “Is Wall Street Losing Interest in Bitcoin?”, we warned of a sudden and persistent sell flow during U.S. market hours, suggesting it could be driven by Bitcoin ETF liquidations—which have now surpassed $3 billion in February. We highlighted that our Bitcoin trend model had turned bearish at $96,000, anticipating a retest of the $90,000–$91,000 support zone.

👇11-11) Additionally, we cautioned: “Bitcoin is edging closer to breaking the Diamond Top pattern to the downside, making risk management the top priority at this stage.” These developments have since played out, reinforcing the importance of tracking technical patterns and market structure shifts in real-time.

Our February 3 report warned: bearish Bitcoin Diamond Top pattern (here)