Bitcoin Is Crashing to $50,000 – But You Are Prepared…!!!

👇1-11) We have constantly written about our bearish narrative for almost a month, supported by market structure analysis, trading signals, and views. Buy flows have long dried up while sell flows are accelerating. We warned that this was not the time to be complacent and that risk management was vital.

👇2-11) Bitcoin is breaking significant technical and psychological levels at $60,000. This is a key level for Bitcoin miners and Bitcoin Spot ETF buyers, and it also broadly marks the bottom (support) of the three-month trading range. Price declines could accelerate as support gets broken and sellers scramble to find liquidity. Only ill-informed traders are willing to buy here. Breaking this support could cause a sharp decline to the low $50,000s.

👇3-11) Unfortunately, many appear to be still very long Bitcoin, while a correction towards $50,000/$55,000 could have offered much better re-entry levels. Losing money could have been prevented as we had provided many arguments (from $67,339 when one of our trading models turned bearish on June 12 after the failed breakout attempt in early June).

👇4-11) On June 8, we warned that ‘Ethereum Breaks Key $3,725 Support: Imminent Liquidations Expected’, over-positioning indicated that the Ethereum Spot ETF approval was fully priced in, and we also voiced our concern that demand for the ETH ETF would underwhelm. Specifically, we worried about a ‘Bart’ chart formation, where a ramp-up is followed by a sideways consolidation and a rather quick move lower. Ethereum has lost -13.5% since our report.

👇5-11) After the weekend Trump Pump, we wrote on July 1 that the rally towards $64,000 was unsustainable as the election was not decided yet and as Bitcoin balances on exchanges increased again, a sign that additional sell flow could be hitting exchanges and the price of Bitcoin. There also appeared crypto to fiat offramp, notably through Circle.

👇6-11) On June 28, we provided ’10 Reasons Why Bitcoin Could fall to $55,000’. We mentioned poor Q3 seasonals, with August and September seeing negative returns for Bitcoin, and that miners were about to liquidate more BTC inventory as the price was approaching their $60,000 breakeven price. As the $6.5bn (notional) options expiry had kept Bitcoin prices near $60,000.

👇7-11) On June 24, we warned of ‘Bitcoin Double Top? Is It Time to Panic?’ targets a Bitcoin correction back to $50,000—if not $45,000.  Previous declines when Bitcoin dropped during April / May were halted by Fed Chair Powell’s dovish comments but the technical overhang could cause steep price declines.

👇8-11) On June 20, we wrote about ‘Bitcoin ETFs and OGs Offload $1bn each – should you sell too? Our market structure analysis indicated that money inflows had peaked, and OGs, ETFs, Bitcoin miners, and stablecoin issuers were no longer positively contributing to liquidity in the ecosystem. Monthly chart technical analysis indicated that this could be a big cycle top.

👇9-11) On June 25, in ‘Bitcoin Is Holding the Line – For Now! We showed how open interest was holding relatively firm as Bitcoin sharply dropped – indicating that many long positions were still trapped while prices fell. Eventually, this would cause liquidations as too many were not fast enough to close long positions.

👇10-11) On June 27, ‘Is the Party Over? When Will Bitcoin Rise Again?’ We analyzed the seasonal tendency that would expect a sell-off until later this summer. We also pointed out that Bitcoin saw sharp corrections once various regulated products started trading, notably the CME Bitcoin Futures launch in December 2017, the Coinbase IPO in April 2021, the Bitcoin ETFs based on Futures in October 2021, and the Bitcoin ETFs based on Spot in January 2024. This indicated a sell-the-news event for the ETH ETF approval.

👇11-11) On May 10, we ripped Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow model apart, showing ‘$1,300,000 per Bitcoin? – Or have we already reached this cycle’s HIGH?’ That ever-diminishing cycle return projected an upside target of 62,009 based on the 2022 Bitcoin low of 15,787. Eventually, the stock-to-flow model would have to break down; based on our analysis, it failed last cycle as the projected $110,793 was not reached in 2021.