Bitcoin: This Might be the BIG ONE

👇1-15) Although bullish sentiment prevails in the Bitcoin/crypto space, there are moments when protecting fortunes or capitalizing on sharp price drops is crucial. On October 3, 2023, we published an article predicting a significant Bitcoin rally, contingent on the Fed maintaining its current stance, with the advice to "Sell at the Fed's First Rate Cut." (No, our latest work is no longer accessible on Deribit, where this article was initially published). This perspective has gained prominence as the anticipated rate cut now appears driven by economic weakness rather than lower inflation.

👇2-15) In October 2022, while most were bearish, we adopted a bullish stance with a 2024 halving price target of $63,160, ultimately reaching $63,491 on April 20, 2024. Similarly, our 2023 year-end target of $45,000, which concluded at $43,613, was met with skepticism. Many were disappointed by our early February report, which set a 2024 Bitcoin price target at ‘only’ $70,000. However, we had forecasted the $60,000 to $70,000 range well in advance, based on our stock-to-flow analysis predicting diminishing returns over time, with a cycle high of $62,000. For more details, see our May 9, 2024 report.

👇3-15) Bitcoin is primarily a momentum trading game where the trend is your friend—until it isn't. While we can outline potential cycle developments, trading the peaks and troughs requires reacting to breakdown or breakout signals. This approach might result in losses when false buy signals occur during rallies, but effective risk management, such as using stop-loss orders, can protect most traders' capital. While many advocate for HODLing or dollar cost averaging, these strategies haven't favored those who entered Ethereum or Bitcoin from 2021 onward. Our Ethereum short trading signal from July 22 yields a 20% profit; a much bigger correction might unfold.

Bitcoin Driven Largely by Leverage Shifts Since March ($bn)

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