🚀 Bitcoin: Why We Turned Bearish 10+ Days Ago

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Bitcoin: Why We Turned Bearish 10+ Days Ago

👇1-10) This correction was 100% predictable – as we have pointed out in several reports. While going against consensus is never easy, we use data, predictive models, and objective forward-looking analysis to make the hard calls at turning points. Although we called and caught the end-of-January low and had wild upside targets of 70,000, several risk factors ahead caused us to turn bearish.

👇2-10) Even our trading signals had a short signal for ETH-USDT over the weekend, which is already +10% in the money. As many have been asking to upgrade from the newsletter to the trading signals, we will offer the old price for the stand-alone trading signals product for everyone who wants to upgrade for the next 24 hours (here). However, this link will only be available briefly as we complete our website and trading models upgrade.

Ethereum Short Sell Signal - Published March 16

👇3-10) We published our monthly Bitcoin on March 8, identifying the divergence between the rising Bitcoin price and the declining signal of the three reversal indicators. ‘Bitcoin could retrace back to 63,000 with 60,000 key support; if broken, then 52,000/54,000’—as a quote from that report (which is part of our strategy reports offering). Although the minimum retracement to 63,000 has been fulfilled, we still think it's too early to turn bullish again (which we surely will at one point).

👇4-10) On March 9, we wrote in our newsletter that contrary to common perception, Bitcoin failed to rally during US trading hours as large sell offers offset the buy flow from the Bitcoin Spot ETFs. We also predicted that the buy flow would stop soon as buyer saturation would set in. This is precisely what happened by the end of last week.

👇5-10) Our models flagged different Ethereum trading signals on February 12 and 13, with aggressive upside predictions. However, the immediate upside catalyst was removed once the Ethereum Dencun upgrade was out of the way.

👇6-10) We were very concerned when news resurfaced that there was no dialogue between the Ethereum ETF applicants and the SEC, which is unusual two months ahead of a potential approval, which was the primary catalyst for Ethereum’s rally. The approval likelihood further diminished as applicants tried to squeeze in staking clauses, which would make Ethereum a security.

👇7-10) Our analysis of the March 5 intraday crash and subsequent rally indicated low future predictability. Prices tended to have only a 50:50 probability of going up when a similar situation occurred, with wild swings of +10 %/-10 %. This is when we decided to close out our trading signals and lock in +80% portfolio gains on March 7 (here)—again, as the predictability became foggy.

Bitcoin Analog Model - Published March 6

👇8-10) Based on our Bitcoin Analog Model, published on March 6 (see original chart above), we expected a more significant ‘crash’ to occur within 1-2 weeks. But this analog would also indicate the potential for another leg higher. We will revisit this analysis soon and are still more concerned with downside risk.

👇9-10) Buying this dip is still too early. A key point of our bearishness was the declining retail trading sentiment, which manifested in significantly lower trading volumes for altcoins and meme coins. We also had negative ETF flows (potentially) for two consecutive days (unless BlackRock saw $+400m of inflows last night, which is possible).

👇10-10) Technically, we still expect Bitcoin to trade below 60,000 before a more meaningful rally attempt is started. Based on the previous new high signals, we could paint a rosy picture of 83,000 and 102,000 upside targets, but for the time being, we are more focused on managing the downside. Nevertheless, taking advantage of our Trading Signals upgrade offering is an excellent time (for a limited time only).